By Skip Bayless
Mercury News Staff Columnist

The choice almost certainly boils down to a made-for-49ers candidate and a mold-shattering outsider who has grown on everyone he has met at team headquarters.

According to team sources, the next 49ers coach will be Rick Neuheisel or Ted Cottrell. Slick Rick vs. Straight-Ahead Ted. ``Mariucci with an edge'' vs. the polar opposite of Mooch.

Educated guess: General Manager Terry Donahue would slightly favor the creative mind and star quality of the University of Washington's Neuheisel, who played and coached for Donahue at UCLA. But team director John York would lean toward the NFL know-how and the love-him, fear-him motivational toughness of New York Jets defensive coordinator Cottrell.

Slight edge, Cottrell?

York has the final say. Trying to prove superior to brother-in-law Eddie DeBartolo, the ex-owner, York often defies public opinion by making oddball choices. York would love to win with the unpublicized minority candidate passed over by six teams. At 55, the hefty, balding Cottrell, who never has coached offense or in the NFC, is as far from the Walsh-Seifert-Mariucci image as York could get.

Advantage, Cottrell?

He also would come reasonably cheaply for York, who owes DeBartolo a final payment of about $70 million in July. Yet when former coach Steve Mariucci hit the lottery with the Detroit Lions, York was off the hook for the $2.25 million he owed Mooch. Did that bring, say, University of Oklahoma Coach Bob Stoops back into financial range?

No. My top choices for this job have been Stoops and Jimmy Johnson. But either would demand too much money and -- more important -- authority in an organization that Donahue and York want to control. They want a new transmission, not engine.

As a source close to Stoops said Saturday: ``Why would Bob want to leave a place where he could win several more national championships for a front office that appears to be as screwed up as the 49ers?''

But Neuheisel is different. He hasn't built a potential dynasty. He might be ready to leave a job that pays about $1.4 million -- and some alums sound ready to help pay off his $2.1 million buyout. As a Seattle source said: ``Rick glanced into the abyss last season and realized his support was much thinner than he thought.''

Winding up with 12 defenders on the field after a timeout cost his Huskies in their opener at Michigan. The next week, details were reported of a contract Neuheisel had agreed to before the season. But the predictable reaction from alums was: ``We reward Neuheisel's stupidity with a six-year extension that makes him one of the five highest-paid coaches in college football?''

Washington lost to Cal for the first time since 1976. Washington fell to 4-5, rallied to gain a Sun Bowl bid by beating Oregon State, Oregon and Washington State, then blew a 17-0 lead over Purdue and lost 34-24.

Three times since leaving Colorado for Washington, Neuheisel has been penalized for recruiting infractions. Each time Neuheisel, who received his law degree from USC, argued that he did not break the letter of the NCAA law. Each time the NCAA ruled that he violated the spirit.

His latest sanction forced him to meet recruits only on campus. He appears increasingly frustrated with NCAA rules. His recruiting class was judged middle of the Pacific-10 Conference. His athletic director, Barbara Hedges, is approaching retirement. Washington is looking for a new president, and he or she might not be a Neuheisel backer.

And Neuheisel has a shot at coaching an on-the-verge NFL team whose G.M. is like a big brother to him? These aren't the Lions or the Cincinnati Bengals. These are the 49ers, with five Super Bowl trophies and six returning Pro Bowl players. Here's an instant chance to be a hero.

By now, the notoriously ambitious Neuheisel might have sent several dozen roses to Denise DeBartolo York. Several sources say Neuheisel and Donahue have had informal discussions about the 49ers job. As a walk-on quarterback who beat out Steve Bono, Neuheisel was a Rose Bowl MVP for Donahue. The two had a falling-out when Donahue wouldn't recommend Neuheisel to replace him at UCLA because he didn't think Neuheisel was ready. But the wound healed after Neuheisel, at 33, became college football's youngest head coach, at Colorado.

At Washington, Neuheisel won the Rose Bowl two seasons ago. He's more creative and aggressive offensively than Mariucci. He's more out of the Walsh mold -- almost too intelligent and sophisticated to be a football coach. He plays guitar and does magic tricks. His golden-boy looks would make him the perfect billboard face of the 49ers.

Yet Neuheisel has been criticized for being too soft to inspire rock-'em, sock-'em defense. His detractors say his Rose Bowl season was more about the fourth-quarter magic of quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo than Neuheisel's brilliance.

While Mariucci generally avoids controversy, Neuheisel always winds up in the middle of it. While rival coaches generally like the humble Mooch, Neuheisel's condescension and arrogance routinely trigger resentment.

Too bad you can't combine Neuheisel's lightning-rod charisma with Cottrell's NFL savvy and fire. One's strength is the other's weakness. Cottrell hasn't been a head coach; Neuheisel has no pro experience.

I'd slightly favor Cottrell. But I'd keep glancing over my shoulder for Slick Rick.

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